This is the beginning of something that I hope to do every day. I'm going to write why I bet everything that I bet, for the remainder of baseball season. The hope is that it's a content item that you can consume in short manner, and hopefully make some money from along the way. Every play that is listed in these pieces will be for 1 unit unless listed otherwise. So lets get started.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 2:20 P.M EST
I'm looking to buy the Cubs in a spot where they function well. It's a spot unique to the Cubs, as these Friday afternoon Wrigley matinees are tougher for opponents to function in. Cubs starter Justin Steele functions particularly well in these spots. He aced the Marlins to the tune of 7 innings pitched and only one run allowed in a 4-1 win for the Cubs. He also aced the Marlins again in that same exact spot last season in another win. Reds starter Hunter Greene is a phenom but has functioned poorly against the Cubs historically. The Cubs chased him in a 8-3 win in a Wednesday matinee start. Greene only lasted four innings and gave up three runs before being pulled. So, I'm going to back the Cubs on the moneyline today at home in a unique spot.
The Pick(s): Cubs ML -145
Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | 7:05 P.M EST
The first of a really fun series between AL surprises in Baltimore will feature highly touted prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the mound for the O's. His rookie campaign hasn't gone exactly how fans were hoping. He's been giving up really hard contact at a really frequent rate. If the ball has been put in play against Rodriguez, it has typically been shot out of a cannon. Rodriguez has actually pitched worse at home than on the road, he has a 7.36 ERA across four home starts. Jon Gray has pitched to a 2.20 road ERA and a 3-0 road record. He's been really good, but his worst road starts have been out of division road starts. I think that he'll pitch relatively well here, but the road out of division starts are worth noting. The Rangers should be able to get to Rodriguez with one of the leagues best offenses.
The Pick(s): Rangers ML +105
Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals | 7:10 P.M EST
Two of the more disappointing starts in the sport belong to these two teams. Shane Bieber will go to the mound for the Guardians today, and we're looking to bet against him here. He's given up a ton of hard contact and despite a strong ERA, has poor metrics, indicating regression lies in the fairly immediate future. Bieber has pitched to a 3.08 ERA but has an xERA of 4.92. The Cardinals have begun to reverse a poor early start. They're 13-5 in their last 18 games and are riding a really hot offense to do so. This is a perfect spot to back the red hot Cardinals against a pitcher who's due for substantial regression. The Cardinals should win here.
The Pick(s): Cardinals ML -105, Cardinals -1.5 +160