We began this content item yesterday and it didn't go super well. We started 1-3, the Rangers preventing a reverse sweep with their 12-2 win. Baseball is a long season. 112 games left for a lot of these clubs. It's a marathon, not a sprint, so manage your bankroll well and by the end of the year, we'll get to where we want to be. Every now and again, I'm going to feature guest plays within this content piece. Today, Kenneth Cotterill and the host of Competitive Hedge Podcast is going to share his MLB Best Bet at the end of the content item. Let's get started, shall we?
Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 2:10 P.M EST
Two teams with similar records but in different situations will battle at Target Field this afternoon. The Twins sit in first place despite only being one game over .500, and the Jays sit in last place in the AL East despite being two games over .500. We're going to back Pablo Lopez and the home team here today in a direct fade of Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has been very poor away from Toronto, pitching to a 4.03 road ERA versus a 2.16 home ERA. Similar to vampires, Chris Bassitt also hates day games. His ERA in day games is a whopping 14.04. That's enough for me.
The Pick(s): Twins ML -115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:10 P.M EST
The wonderkid with the incredible hair is back. After his rehab starts, Tyler Glasnow will take the bump for the Rays against first-ballot Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. This should be a doozy. We're going to back the Rays in this spot, where I believe they play up in Glasnow's first start back and get to Kershaw with their elite offense. Kershaw is much worse on the road, pitching to a 4.32 ERA away from home, and despite the overall numbers still being rather pearly, he has really struggled to find it in May. Over four May starts, he's pitched to a 5.12 ERA, allowing 11 earned runs over 19.1 innings pitched. The Ray's offense should be able to get to him here, and the Dodgers bullpen has been a bottom-ten bullpen this year.
The Pick(s): Rays ML -115
Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | 4:05 P.M EST
What a spot it was yesterday. The Rangers won by a whopping 12-2 and dominated the Orioles from really start to finish. We're going back to the well in a fade of Dean Kremer who's a below average league starter that's been running relatively clean. Kremer has only allowed four runs in his last 19 innings pitched, but when you lift up the hood, you find a pitcher who's due for substantial regression. Despite the 4.61 ERA, which is already not very good, you find that Dean Kremer has a FIP of 4.85 and an xERA of 6.75. He gives up a ton of loud contact (9th percentile in hard hit rate allowed.) He also functions poorly against the AL West at home. Against Oakland in April, he allowed the A's four earned runs in 4.1 IP giving up two homers and walking two while only striking out one. While better against the Angels, he still gave up three runs in 5.2 IP with six hits sprinkled in that game. The thriving Rangers offense should get the job done here.
The Pick(s): Rangers ML +100
Finally, our guest play from Kenneth,
Pirates vs Mariners Over 7.5 - In Contreras last 17 IP he has given up 10 runs, so not at the top of his game - Castillo coming off his best start since early April, due for a bit of a regression - Both are around the league average in runs per game as well.
YTD: 1-3 (-2.45u)