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Euro 2024 Knockout Stage Predictions & Betting Guide

As Euro 2024 enters the thrilling knockout stage, fans and bettors alike are on the edge of their seats, eagerly anticipating the intense clashes that lie ahead. From underdog surprises to powerhouse matchups, the round of 16 promises to deliver a rollercoaster of emotions. With the knockout stage beginning on Hedge's birthday, the brews will be had early and often for the first couple of matches. So, grab your lucky jersey, swear to the gods that Gareth Southgate won't be complete and utter shit, and let's talk some bets.

Match 1: Switzerland vs. Italy

Boy, the Swiss pulled off a masterclass in how not to get beat, but also not look impressive in the group stage. Draws against Germany and Scotland, but a Hungary victory was quite the spectacle. Italy dropped all three to Spain but defeated Albania and snagged a last-minute point against Croatia. So where are we looking here? I think when Betalytics gives you a projection of 1.03-0.98 in Italy's favor you have to play the draw.

Match Prediction: 1-1; Italy Advance on PK's (+190 for Draw)

Match 2: Germany vs. Denmark

One of the more surprising storylines for me in this tournament is how impressive the hosts have been. The Swiss draw felt a tad subpar, but they dominated Scotland and Hungary from start to finish. Denmark earned three draws, with the England performance being their strongest. I think the Danes press up front will cause problems for Germany, but not enough to affect the outcome of the match. BetAlytics has Germany to win full-time at a 64.6% win probability with an xG of 1.74-0.78.

Match Prediction: 2-1 Germany; (Bet Germany ML + Team Total Over 1.5 At +100)

Match 3: England vs. Slovakia

God dammit is it hard to see England at a -250 after that group stage. They generated so few chances and barely scraped out a group victory in a subpar group. Slovakia had one of the shockers of the tournament knocking off Belgium, so they can be scary. This bettor though has to play the under 2.5 out of principle. I think England will advance here, but in what fashion is yet to be determined. I would rather not get caught in a halftime 0-0 saying "You donkey, you knew this would happen." If England dominates I can live with losing my sheckles to the sportsbooks.

Match Prediction: 1-0 England (Betting U2.5 -140)

Match 4: Spain vs. Georgia

No, the Bulldogs didn't make an audible and join the Euro, the country with 3.7M people somehow advanced. Their special result against a B-lineup Portuguese side was one of the best moments of the tournament. Their reward is getting spanked by the Spanish in the next round. BetAlytics is giving us a 1.94-0.71 xG projection, so I will be taking the over here.

Match Prediction: 3-0 Spain (Betting Spain ML + Over 2.5 -130)

Match 5: France vs. Belgium

This is actually one of the easiest ones for me to predict in this stage of the competition. This is largely due to the fact that my fraud meter spikes every time Romelu Lukaku touches the ball. He gets more chances than Gregg Berhalter does for the USA and is equally shit. So for me, this is a game where one of the favorites banishes a country that should've had far more success with this crop of talent. I will take Mbappe and the French on the 90-minute ML front.

Match Prediction: France 3-1 (Betting France ML -109; sprinkling -1.5 at +250)

Match 6: Portugal vs. Slovenia

I am trying to not look too much into that final Portugal group stage game, but Ronaldo has not been great all three games. That being said they are -250 vs. Slovenia for a reason, they should advance here. BetAlytics only is projecting 0.63 goals for Slovenia, but Portugal is not exactly stout at the back. I am playing Portugal -1.5 here, strictly because I believe they have so much firepower up front that even if they do give up a goal, they will score 3+ here.

Match Prediction: Portugal 3-1 (Betting Portugal

Match 7: Romania vs. Netherlands

I have so much regret over taking the Netherlands to the finals on my podcast, but I gotta be impartial here. They flat-out stunk at times in the group stage, but they got a fortunate draw here. Romania had their big win over Ukraine, then looked subpar the two matches after. I do have faith in both sides to create chances and with Netherlands ML at -160, I think I am inclined to take the over. The Netherlands will advance, but perhaps in extra time or a shoot-out.

Match Prediction: 3-1 Netherlands (Betting Over 2.5 -130)

Match 8: Austria vs. Turkey

There is a squad playing in this game that I have to back out of loyalty to my Euro podcast guest. Walker Bailey told me how dangerous the Austrians would be and they took down my Netherlands side in the group stage proving that. I think Turkey are pretty lucky to be here and so Austria ML will be my simple, but final play for the Round of 16.

Match Prediction: 2-1 Austria (Betting Austria ML -109)

Remember, luck favors the bold – so place your bets wisely and enjoy the drama that unfolds on the grandest stage of European football!

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