Hedge Fans US Open Betting Guide
The season's third major is full of a ton of storylines heading into the event. How will the LIV Golfers fare with the media and on the course? Will Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy continue to ride their recent form to another major title? Will one of these "traitorous LIV tour players" win at Brookline? Today we dive into what the players will face and what the best bets for the event are.
The Track - The Country Club
Brookline should be a familiar course name if you are a cinephile. This is the course that Francis Ouimet famously won in 1913 as an amateur, though you likely remember Ouimet as a young Shia LeBouef in "The Greatest Game Ever Played". The last major event held here was the 2013 US Amateur, won by now tour pro-Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Prior to that, it held the Ryder Cup in 1999 when the Americans stormed back on the Sunday singles to win. The last US Open winner here was Curtis Strange in 1988. His score of -6 got him into a playoff where he defeated Nick Faldo. The winner's purse back then was just $180,000. That pales in comparison to the $2.250,000 won by Jon Rahm last year. This course is 250 yards longer as well compared to 1988 at 7,264 yards. This par 70 will have the classic long rough and lightning-fast greens.
This year US Open Logo
Winner Picks (0.5 Unit Plays)
Xander Schauffele +2000
How much longer will Xander contend in majors before finishing it off on a Sunday? Since 2018, Xander has a twice finished second, twice finished third, including the 2019 US Open, and four other times finished in the top ten. He won at the Zurich Classic in April and is seventh in tee to green this year as well. Sprinkle on the always contender to perhaps become a first-time winner.
Collin Morikawa +2700
Morikawa has yet to win on tour this season but does have six top-ten finishes, including two second-place finishes and a fifth-place at April's Master's event. The five-time tour winner has already won the PGA and Open Championship in the last couple of years, so a US Open is not out of the question. Collin is 21st in driving accuracy and 28th in tee to green this year so ball striking and a short track favor Collin.
Viktor Hovland +2900
Another youngster that has yet to win a major is playing some quality golf. Now Viktor finished T41 and T27 in the years first two majors, but he is always a contender. The world's eighth-ranked golfer also has a win on tour this season and three top-ten finishes. Hovland is fifth in birdies and seventh in approaching the green, so he makes birdies in bunches. If he keeps the high numbers off the card he can contend.
Dustin Johnson +3400
People may be giving Dustin a hard time about moving to the LIV Tour, but he has won the US Open. Now this pick could go one of two ways. Dustin could fold like a cheap lawn chair due to media scrutiny and miss the cut. Or he could come in motivated to silence the "haters" and win. All I know is getting the world's 16th-ranked golfer that has won this event at 34/1 odds is a great value pick.
Top 10 Picks (1 Unit Plays)
Cameron Smith +210
Rolling with the sixth-ranked golfer, multiple-time winner on tour this week to play well. +2000 for him to win is worth a sprinkle, but we are keeping him at +210 for a top ten on ours. Smith has just one top-five at the US Open since 2015, but he is still in form. When Cameron is on his game, few in the world can keep up with him. We are banking on that Smith to show up and show out once again.
Collin Morikawa +290
See above as to why we like Morikawa, thus doubling down on him playing well.
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Top 20 Picks (1 Unit Plays)
Will Zalatoris +123
It was a heartbreak moment for Zalatoris just a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship. He played well all week, coming up short in a playoff to Justin Thomas. That being said this kid is still in form and am expecting a solid finish from him this week. Plus money for a top-twenty finish from a guy that just about won a major within the last month is great. Hammer this play.
Max Homa +170
Top ten in the FedEx Cup means I love Max to finish in the top twenty here this week. Homa has already won the Wells Fargo and Fortinet Championship this year and his play style sets up well here. Homa is 20th in putting and birdies, so he will make his fair share of low numbers. His 87th driving accuracy ranking concerns me, but believe he will overcome it with his length.
Round 1 Leader (0.5 Unit Plays)
Shane Lowry +3900
Another former major winner makes his way into this betting article. Lowry has the ability to go insanely low any given day. He has led major championships before, and so at +3900 to lead after day one I like the shot in the dark here.
Sung-Jae Im +4400
As previously stated, the first-round leader is a bit of a shot in the dark. Look at just the last couple of years where Russell Henley led in 2018, Justin Rose in 2019, and Henley once again in 2021. Im has played some solid golf and while I do not believe he will win, I think he could come out firing. My prediction would be -5 leads after day one and I think Im can get there.
Missed Cuts (1 Unit Plays)
Jordan Spieth +220
The PGA Tours wonder child and former winner of this event I think miss the cut. Always a gamble picking a top ten player to miss the cut, but do not love this setup for Jordan. Spieth is just 131st in driving accuracy, which fairways are key at a US Open. Love the odds so take Spieth to struggle.
Cameron Young +160
Young is a player in form but has made just one cut at a major in his four appearances. Now that one made the cut was a T3 at last month's PGA Championship, but the US Open is a different animal. Young missed the cut in 2019 and 2021 at this event and I see that trend continuing. He is just 25 and with limited experience, I think he struggles this week.
Other Plays We Will Be Hammering (1 Unit Plays)
72 Hole Bets:
Will Zalatoris Over Sam Burns -109
Shane Lowry Over Matthew Fitzpatrick -109
Dustin Johnson Over Brooks Koepka
Round 1 Bets
Jon Rahm Over Rory McIlroy -106
Si-Woo Kim Over Sebastien Munoz -118
Viktor Hovland Over Tony Finau -118
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