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Hedge Thoughts Volume 1: Luton & NFL Receiving

Writing about sports has been a passion for years. However, passion can come and go, which occurred over the past year or so. So when you read “Volume 1” above that could mean a few things. It could be the first of many, and it could also mean just this one. Who is to say which it will be? We will say that content will never be short through these articles. Podcast episodes, articles, YouTube videos, whatever tickles our fancy will find its way to your eyes and ears and we appreciate every single one of you who views them.

This series will contain a take that may be spoken about in a future episode or video. But this podcast is not just about opinions and predictions. It is also about getting you the competitive (H)edge in the betting market. So we will look to provide some winning future bets, such as our JJ OPOY play at +1600 last year or our Bears for the worst record at +1000. The first future we give today is a favorite, full disclosure, but one that feels quite obvious to us.

Luton Town May Be Historically Poor

I genuinely hope I am wrong about this one, given this club feels like the ultimate underdog finally getting their shot at the big time. Their stadium is electric and they are a team the casual footy fan can get behind. However, through two matches this club looks out of their depth. Two road losses to Brighton and Chelsea by a combined 7-1 score line is rough. Both games were on the road, which in the Premier League is never easy.

Then you look at today's result. A 2-1 defeat to West Ham in their opening home match and it just makes you wonder: how long will Luton go pointless? You can see from the tweet above, that points were deserved today. But the two matches prior, Luton Town's combined 1.82 xG to Chelsea/Brighton's combined 6.17 xG is deeply concerning. September will be a critical juncture for the Hatters. A road fixture with Fulham, Wolves at home, and Everton at Goodison Park are ahead of them. Points must be taken, as this may be the easiest part of their schedule.

Do not overthink this one. Jetta is much more reliable than the vehicle, he has been incredible since his LSU days. He is the odds-on favorite to win it, but he also is in a perfect situation. That Vikings defense was horrendous last year and they may somehow have gotten worse. Minnesota won a lot of one-score games, but they will have a lot of high-scoring ones this year as well. With what has the potential to be a historically poor defense I see Justin Jefferson being needed all sixty minutes of every game.

Weapons-wise as well KJ Osborn and Jordan Addison should be fine as second and third receiver options. TJ Hockenson is a mighty fine tight end as well, even resetting the tight-end market recently. But Jefferson has the worst second option out of all the favorites to take home this award. Ja'Marr Chase (second-best odds at +600) has a formidable two in Tee Higgins, plus Tyler Boyd as his WR3. Tyreek Hill (fourth-best odds at +900) gets cut out by the elite play of Jaylen Waddle as well

You also need to look at what the quarterback play like for each receiver's situation. Cooper Kupp has a fine quarterback in recent Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford. But at thirty-five years old and coming off a major injury, much like Kupp is, do not get suckered into his third-best +800 odds. Even Davante Adams (fifth-best odds at +1200) is relying on game manager Jimmy Garappolo to throw him the most yards, which seems unachievable. We may love to make fun of Kirk Cousins in prime time. But with 4000 yard plus seasons in seven of his last eight, he has the ability to get Jetta to back-to-bacck yards titles.

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