OTBN Logo.jpg

Kenneth's NFL Week 1 Betting Bonanza

Sports betting is becoming as American as Apple Pie. I guess up here in Canada you would say it's Canadian as Maple Syrup. Regardless of what country you represent the idea of betting on sports is becoming far more mainstream. This weekly article series will give you some bets that I like overall and from a player over-and under perspective. Four positions, four overs, and four under. In the words of Russell Wilson, LETS RIDE.


Top 5 Games To Watch

5. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers won't have Ben Roethlisberger for the first time in a decade. Mitchell Trubisky is under center as a co-captain but for how long. They battle their AFC North rival the Bengals, who just went to the Super Bowl. Will they experience that dreaded Super Bowl Hangover? I think they could week one.


Best Bet: Pittsburgh +7 -110

4. New England Patriots vs. MiamI Dolphins

New England made the playoffs last year, but are they still the second best team in the division? Miami added weapons for Tua, who is playing for his future this season. Mac Joens was the best rookie quarterback but will he take a step forward or stay put. Watch this AFC East matchup to find out.


Best Bet: Under 46 -110

3. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs without Tyreek Hill have a tough test in week one. The Cardinals started hot last year and Kyler has a new contract. Can Mahomes deliver without his top five wide receiver? Or will Kyler and company run all over that bad Cardinals defense. Either way tune in to a great football game


Best Bet: Arizona +6.5 -110

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys

This was the opener on Thursday night a year ago and it delivered. Dallas turned over Tampa a ton, but could not capitalize with a victory. They are at home this time around and if they do win, at the very least they keep it close. Tom vs. Dak round two incoming in just over 24 hours.


Best Bet: Dallas +2.5 -110

1. Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The new look Packers will focus more on defense and less on force-feeding Davante Adams. Minnesota has a new offensive minded head coach as well, so the Vikings offense should take another step. All I know is points will be scored a plenty and this is the must watch game of the week.


Best Bet: Over 46.5 -110

Quarterback Over/Under

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +131


A Baker Mayfield revenge game will have him motivated for a variety of reasons. First game with a new team, the first game in front of the Carolina faithful and against the team that gave up on him. Cleveland's defense will cause some issues, but he will battle and throw a few touchdowns. Expecting one to McCaffrey out of the backfield at some point, another to Moore.


Joe Flacco Under 230.5 Passing Yards -114


Does Vegas just love the Flacco revenge game or did they forget this is not 2014? Forget the fact that his top weapon is Elijah Moore, but this is a bad Jets team. Garbage time or not Joe is a backup and will throw for 200 if he is lucky.


Running Back Over/Under


Damien Harris Over 45.5 Yards-107

While I do believe that Stevenson will play a role in this offense week one wise I love the value on Harris. Still a viable fantasy option and starting running back for this Patriots team. In week one vs Miami last year he had 100 yards, final game he had 37 so the line feels right. He will rush for 50-60 yards in a loss to Miami.


Josh Jacobs Under 49.5 Yards -114

50 yards against that Chargers defensive line is a lot for Jonathan Taylor, let alone Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is an injury proned back, but he should be alright in week one, just not stellar. He will still get 40-45 yards, but that is a task in what I think is an aerial shoot-out contest. Ride with the under and cash.

Wide Rec. Over/Under


Brandin Cooks Over 58.5 Yards -107

This is not a game I will be watching unless there is a blackout Canada-wide on every other game. Despite their week one troubles, the Colts should pick up the win comfortably. Davis Mills also is not as bad as people make him out to be. Cooks is the only real threat in the passing game, so he will get his production. He is also a deep threat so he could go over on one big play.


Mecole Hardman Under 37.5 Yards -115

Too many new and better weapons, Hardman will play fourth fiddle at best weapons-wise. Forget familiarity, Hardman got replaced with better talent.


Tight End Over/Under


Dalton Schultz Over 49.5 Yards -117

The Dalton Schultz in the fifth round in fantasy was fascinating but deserved. No Cooper means more Schultz, especially in the red zone. Dak loves him so I love this over play at -117.


Hunter Henry Under 31.5 Yards -113


Rolling with a Patriots running back and fading their touchdown-reliant tight end. This line is here due to his 86-yard performance versus Miami last year late in the season. With Parker, Meyers, Stevenson, and Bourne though, too many weapons to spread the ball for Mac Jones's inevitable 200-225 yard performance.




Thank you to everyone that gave this a read-through! Check out the other great work at the network, including my podcast the Competitive Hedge Podcast!

11 views0 comments