Week one had a crazy amount of upsets. Whether it be a tie, the Giants winning or the Bears knocking off San Francisco. That being said it was still a positive week on both the game and props side.
Top 5 Games To Watch (Record 3-2)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-0)
NFC South opponents will meet up in New Orleans as our fifth-best game. The Saints survived the Falcons which is not ideal. Then Tampa Bay dominated Dallas in the Sunday night matinee. The Bucs have not dealt with the Saints well recently, expect that trend to continue.
Best Bet: New Orleans +3
4. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-0)
These two AFC sides won relatively easy first-week games against AFC opponents. Lamar and company were not their sharpest though, so will they look better. The Dolphins with Hill and Waddle look like they could be lethal. This one has defensive battle written on it though so bet the under.
Best Bet: Under 43.5
3. Arizona Cardinals (0-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
Two losers in week one that had playoff aspirations. After this week one will have two in the L column (likely). Arizona defensively were inept and the Raiders offense struggled if you did not have the last name Adams. Expecting this to be a high scoring affair where the team with the ball last takes it.
Best Bet: Over 51.5
2. New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This game is a must-watch for me on both sides. Did Mac Jones just have an off-week one, or is he truly regressing, or at best maintaining, his play from his rookie season? How will the Steelers adjust without TJ Watt to carry them defensively? One thing I do know is New England historically has owned the Steelers.
Best Bet: New England -2.5
1. Minnesota Vikings (1-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
This NFC division leaders matchup should be a ton of fun to watch. Philadelphia is coming off putting up 38 on Detroit, while Minnesota blew out Green Bay 23-7. Philadelphia is favored to win the NFC East, Minnesota's odds are near even with the Packers now. Either way, someone starts 2-0 and we get many points.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 Points
Player Prop Over/Unders
Over: Matt Ryan Over 236.5 -103
Now historically the Colts have not played the Jaguars very well, especially on the road. Ryan is coming off throwing for 352 yards last week vs. Houston. Now this is mostly due to trailing and they may not as much this week. but 236.5 to me is a slap in the face to Matt so ride the over.
Under: Marcus Mariota Under 213.5
This is going to be an ugly contest, do not watch this beat down. Atlanta will trail a ton and people may think this means "garbage time yards". I think Mariota will be scrambling a ton with his legs meaning not very many yards. Lots of Mariota and Patterson on the ground means not many passing stats.
Running Back (1-1)
Over: Javonte Williams Over 58.5 -112
Denver had to be the biggest flop of week one. Javonte was one of those guys that kind of flopped given his expectations. Gordon took quite a few carries and to me this is the week he wins the job. Gordon will get carries, but Javonte will bust some runs to be the clear number one. Denver will get plenty of garbage ground yards.
Under: David Montgomery Under 46.5 -117
I am a big believer in Khalil Herbert in that backfield and think he sees more carries. Chicago will also trail for almost the entire game, meaning more Fields. And neither back is good at receiving the ball so this means not much RB production.
Wide Receivers (2-0)
Over: DeVante Parker Over 33.5 -117
Parker was another guy that was a week one flop. He was the "big" signing for New England and missed the mark. The theme of this week is "redemption arc" and this is a great spot to do so. The Patriots should win this game and if they do it is because Parker makes a big play or two. The only thing to monitor is Mac Jones's health. If he does not go scrap this play and find another to replace it.
Under: Corey Davis Under 41.5 -113
We saw the Corey Davis song and dance last season week one as well when he scored two touchdowns for the Jets. Now the Jets play a really talented Browns team and their corners should keep Davis in check. The concern is always a massive play from Corey, but I think this is not the week to play his over or in fantasy football. Better options out there for you and that should be where you are looking. Also Joe Flacco had a great week one, but not expect this to be every week. He is still an Average Joe.
Tight End (2-0)
Over: Hunter Henry Over 25.5 -118
I took the under on Hunter last week, but this feels like a better spot for him this week. No TJ Watt for the Steelers means this defense could struggle a bit from a leadership perspective. Henry is not gonna explode for 60+ yards, but I see 5-6 receptions for 35-45 yards. This is my second Patriots player prop, but I still like both this week.
Under: Pat Freiermuth Under 36.5 -113
Same game different tight end. Friermuth could see some targets with Diontae a bit banged up, but I think the focus here will be the run game. Lots of Najee Harris and even Trubisky scrambling. Do not love this line for Pat so fade those yards week two.
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