Everybody loves a massive parlay hit. There is no greater joy than watching that $5 or $10 eight-teamer turn into $700 overnight. Every day or two we see tweets and videos blow up when Joe Schmoe from the middle of nowhere Minnesota hits a massive lay. I was one of those people who saw a guy turn $26 into $283,538.52 and immediately went and chased a win like that.
This Is Not The Hunger Games, The Odds Are Not Ever In Your Favour
The idea though that this is a regular occurrence for people in the sports betting space is fabricated. Sure your buddy may screenshot his betting slip and say "I just won $450 boys drinks are on me." But what they will not tell you is how many failed parlays it took to get to that number. Again, nothing wrong with celebrating a win, but just do some simple math.
$5 parlay each day x 365 days of the year = $1825 dollars. Let's say your average win on said parlay is $450, you would have to wager 7 bets of -110 or better to reach that $450 number. But look below at the true odds of hitting such a parlay.
That means if you hit 3 of those in a calendar year you are considered above average, but it would truly take 4 in a year in order to break even and five to come out on top. There is a reason that Las Vegas has those massive casinos and hotels on the horizon: they come out on top more than they lose.
Narcissism Is Pungent In The Twitter Space
Twitter may be a lawless place, but do not get people's knowledge of betting twisted. As a sports gambling podcast, I preach "gamble responsibly" and "have fun, do not let it control your life." In fact, all you have to do is check our Twitter bio which states the following.
Upon first reading, you may say "this guy really is preaching that majority bettors lose yet claims to have a winning record" there are two points that need to be made. Firstly, holding a Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year ticket from August took me from the red to the green, at least momentarily. Secondly, and most importantly, this record is largely due to tracking my bets through Betstamp now. Having this "winning record" since November is all fine and dandy, but what is not shown is the drought in July and August where I was down dozens of units betting on baseball.
The idea that "we sometimes win more than we lose" is true at times, but that was not the case in the dog days of summer. We will not however be blatantly dishonest to those that listen to the show or even read our tweets. Sadly though folks can be taken advantage of by people who claim to be "the goats of #GamblingTwitter." Just look at the clown below, claiming to be 33-0 on his "LOTY" plays. These are the same folks that tell you to go and bet "50 units" on a single play.
If you are a $10-a-unit bettor, which full transparency we are, then reading 50 units on one play is absurd. Expecting someone to shell out $500, which for many is vastly outside their means, is reckless. This is when folks start to gamble away mortgages, marriages, cars, and all the beautiful things one may have in their respective lives. If you are a reader of this article and think this may apply to you, never hesitate to reach out and get the help you need. Living in the province of Saskatchewan I have the Problem Gambling Help Line in the ticker below on my show.
Face Facts That The Majority Of Bets Lose
You just have to go to the 5:50 mark of the video below to see the truth about betting. Some of the biggest gambling shows in the world, such as Barstool Pick Em, have personalities that lose. Now while not all sports bettors are "Rico Bosco Bad" some are just simply average. A 50% win rate means you are losing money and that is the nature of the beast.
If you want to gamble on a game, less so caring about the result but want to be more emotionally invested in the game, fill your boots. Nothing wrong with doing so. But at the end of the day, you just check out the quote below in regard to winning bets to understand what you are doing.
Professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage higher than 55 percent, and it's often as low as 53 or 54 percent. If someone tells you they win 70 percent of their picks (at 11-to-win-10), you are talking to either a liar or a bad record-keeper.
Keep It Light, Keep It Fun & Gamble On
Putting this article out on Super Bowl Sunday was targeted at the consumer. The big game is also the most significant gambling day of the year. Folks gather to partake in delicious appetizers and a wobbly pop or two. They also do Super Bowl Prop Bet sheets or simply bet on what color Gatorade gets dumped on the winning team's head coach.
Enjoy the game, and place a wager or two if you so choose. Just do not view sports betting as "investing." It is exactly what it states that it is: gambling. Tossing $20 on red at the roulette table or $20 on a Travis Kelce anytime is the same thing. The odds may differ, but at the end of the day, it is for money. Have fun, today folks, Hedge out.