What is up my fellow fantasy football degenerates? This season, I will be putting out a column every Friday to spot my favorite fantasy flops and favorite fantasy big-nut performers and will keep track of the record. This will only be including the Sunday Slate main DK games. The goal is to find some value in these positions so you can spend up on others and also prevent you from wasting your budget on a buster. Pick and choose wisely. Also, gamble responsibly!
Flops
QB (0-0) - Rb’s (0-0) - WR (0-0) - TE (0-0)
Big Nuts
QB (0-0) - Rb’s (0-0) - WR (0-0) - TE (0-0)
Let’s Kick Off Week 1
Quarterbacks
Flop = Joe Burrow $6400 (7th)
The Bengals open up vs Pittsburgh in what looks like could be bad weather for at least a half which factors into this decision to fade Joey B.
If you look at Burrow vs Pitt last season, I wouldn’t call it his best. He went 34/42 for 362 yards and had a 4/2 TD/INT ratio …. in both games COMBINED! He did add a rushing TD which helps him immensely in the PPG discussion.
Pittsburgh’s defense will be ready to go IMO and Burrow hasn’t played since the SB.
Rank 7th QB - Projection = Outside Top 15 QB
Big Nuts = Jameis Winston $5300 (20th)
That's right, bust out the crab legs this weekend! The 2021 Falcons gave up the 2nd most fantasy pts to opposing Quarterbacks and you know Jameis is licking his fingers at his opportunity to ball out this weekend with all his new toys.
In 6.5 games last year. Winston had a 14/3 TD/INT ratio - Now with Michael Thomas back, for now, Jarvis Landry coming over from Cleveland and Rookie Playmaker Chris Olave all catching balls, Famous Jameis could easily explode in week 1 on a fast track in the Atlanta Dome. Oh, and don’t forget…..Kamara is pretty good out of the backfield at catching balls. Huge day!
Rank 20th QB - Projection = Top 8 QB
Running Backs
Flop = James Conner 7,000 (8th)
Conner started slowly last year, 7.9 FPG (First 2 games), and finished kind of banged up to end the season. He did have a few monster games including 40, 33, and 27 pt performances which really helped his overall finish. James also finished the season with 19 total TDs as well which I think, has to come down a bit. Talks are that there has been a plan to try and limit his usage to keep him a little fresher this season.
Hard to fade a starting player in a game with the highest projected total but I'm doing it here. The Chiefs only allowed 7 rushing TD’s all season and the two best defenses only allowed 6. Darrel Williams should see plenty of work against his old team in a “revenge” spot.
Rank 8th RB - Projection = Outside Top 25 RB
Big Nuts = Mike Davis $4400 (74th)
This is crazy to me…Dobbins looks out, Gus is out and you have a run-first team. This is an insane value. Not saying he is going to light the world on fire but I could see a 2 TD type of day just out of opportunity here. The Jets also gave up 23 rush TDs (most by 4) and also gave up the most ppg to RBs
Plug in Mike for this Week 1 matchup and spend your savings elsewhere.
Rank 74th RB - Projection = Top 20 RB
Wide Receivers
Flop = Deebo Samuel $7400 (3rd)
I don't trust Trey Lance’s accuracy nor do I think Deebo will be too heavily relied on in the run game since everyone is healthy and he specifically asked to not do so as often. I think the game will be sloppy and the price tag is way too high. Bears/Niners is the lowest projected over/under and I just have to see Lance and the gameplan before I can put my whole amount of faith in paying up for Deebo in DFS.
Rank 3rd WR - Projection = Outside Top 25 WR
Big Nuts = Mecole Hardman $4600 (51st)
Mecole is back with KC and Tyreek, Demarcus and Pringle all gone. He has that similar build to Tyreek and I expect him to take over those quick hitters from Mahomes. I dont mind having a guy that has huge play potential with a top QB in the highest pt expected game.
I know he has to deal with newcomers JuJu, MVS and rookie Sky Moore for targets but Mahomes/Mecole familiarity could play a role early in the season as him and Kelce could be the main guys this weekend in a wild game.
Rank 51st WR - Projection = Top 25 WR
Tight Ends
Flop = Mike Gesecki $4800 (7th)
In two games last year vs NE, he had 2 catches on 6 targets for 22 yds. He only scored 2 TDs last season as well. I do expect more TDs this season but not in this matchup. NE was #1 in yards allowed vs TEs in 2021 and with all of the Dolphin's new additions at RB and WR, there are a lot of mouths to feed.
Rank 7th TE - Projection = Outside Top 15 TE
Big Nuts = Brevin Jordan $3100 (29th)
Jordan is the starting tight end (for now) for a team that has limited pass catchers and will be down in most games. Someone on this offense has to get targets and catch the ball. He hit double-digit FP in 1/3 of his games last year although he missed the first part of last year which I think hurt a bit. After a whole offseason with Mills, I think this could be a sneaky connection in this week 1 game vs the colts who gave up the 4th most FPPG to opposing TEs.
Rank 29th TE - Projection = Top 12 TE
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Good luck this weekend and drop your Flops and Big Nut Performers in the comments! Also, be sure to sign up with DraftKings at our link below!